Lottery Odds Compared: Every Major Game Side by Side

The numbers, without decoration

Here are the jackpot odds for 11 major lotteries, ranked from best (most winnable) to worst (least winnable):

Loto France: 1 in 19,068,840. Pick 5 from 49 plus 1 from 10.

SA Lotto: 1 in 20,358,520. Pick 6 from 52.

UK 49s (6-number draw): 1 in 13,983,816. Pick 6 from 49. This is the simplest format and has the best raw odds of any game on this list, but the prizes are smaller.

UK Lotto: 1 in 45,057,474. Pick 6 from 59.

Oz Lotto: 1 in 45,379,620. Pick 7 from 47.

Powerball Australia: 1 in 134,490,400. Pick 7 from 35 plus 1 from 20.

EuroMillions: 1 in 139,838,160. Pick 5 from 50 plus 2 from 12.

EuroJackpot: 1 in 139,838,160. Pick 5 from 50 plus 2 from 12. Same odds as EuroMillions.

La Primitiva: 1 in 139,838,160. Pick 6 from 49 plus 1 Reintegro from 10. The Reintegro is slightly different (you get your money back if just the Reintegro matches), but the jackpot odds are in this range.

Powerball USA: 1 in 292,201,338. Pick 5 from 69 plus 1 from 26.

Mega Millions: 1 in 302,575,350. Pick 5 from 70 plus 1 from 25. The worst jackpot odds of any major lottery in the world.

What these numbers actually mean

A 1 in 292 million chance means if you bought one ticket every day, you would need to buy tickets for 800,000 years to have a coin-flip chance of winning once. You are about 400 times more likely to be struck by lightning in your lifetime than to win the Powerball jackpot on a single ticket.

A 1 in 20 million chance (SA Lotto) is still terrible by any normal standard. But it is 14.6 times more likely than Powerball. That is a significant difference.

Why the odds vary so much

The odds are determined entirely by the game format: how many numbers you pick and from what range.

A pick-6-from-49 game (like the original UK Lotto format or UK 49s) produces about 14 million combinations. A pick-5-from-69-plus-1-from-26 game (Powerball) produces 292 million combinations. The bonus ball mechanism is what really inflates the odds. Without the Powerball extra number, the main draw would be 1 in 11.2 million.

Lottery operators choose game formats that balance two things: the jackpot needs to be large enough to generate ticket sales, and the odds need to be long enough that the jackpot rolls over frequently. Rollovers create the mega-jackpots that drive massive ticket sales.

Powerball changed its format in 2015, increasing the main number pool from 59 to 69. This made the odds worse (from 1 in 175 million to 1 in 292 million) but it also made billion-dollar jackpots possible. The math is cynical but effective: worse odds mean more rollovers, which mean bigger jackpots, which mean more ticket sales.

The "any prize" odds tell a different story

Jackpot odds get the attention, but most lottery players win smaller prizes. The odds of winning anything at all vary significantly:

EuroMillions: 1 in 13 chance of winning any prize. This is the best "any prize" odds of any major international lottery.

UK Lotto: 1 in 9.3 chance of winning any prize (including a free lucky dip for matching 2 numbers).

Powerball: 1 in 24.9 chance of winning any prize ($4 minimum).

Mega Millions: 1 in 24 chance of winning any prize ($2 minimum).

SA Lotto: 1 in 38 chance of winning any prize.

Oz Lotto: 1 in 87 chance of winning any prize. The worst "any prize" odds on this list.

So EuroMillions has middling jackpot odds but the best chance of winning something. Oz Lotto has reasonable jackpot odds but the worst chance of winning anything at all.

Expected value: the math that kills the dream

Expected value multiplies the prize by the probability of winning it. A $2 Powerball ticket has an expected value of roughly $0.82 when the jackpot is at its starting $20 million. That means for every $2 you spend, you get back about $0.82 in statistical terms. You lose $1.18 per ticket on average.

The expected value improves as jackpots grow. At a $1 billion Powerball jackpot, the expected value of a $2 ticket rises to about $1.40. Still negative. Even at the record $2.04 billion jackpot, the expected value was approximately $2.20 per $2 ticket, which looks positive until you factor in the probability of splitting with other winners (ticket sales spike during large jackpots) and the tax reduction.

After taxes and split probability, the expected value of a lottery ticket is always negative. Every game, every jackpot size, every time. The lottery is a tax on optimism, mathematically speaking.

Which game is "best"?

That depends on what you mean by best.

Best odds of winning the jackpot: UK 49s (1 in 14 million for 6-number draw) or Loto France (1 in 19 million). But these jackpots are smaller, typically in the low millions.

Best odds of winning something: EuroMillions (1 in 13) or UK Lotto (1 in 9.3). If you want the most frequent wins, even if they are small, these are your games.

Biggest potential jackpot: Powerball and Mega Millions, both of which have produced jackpots over $1 billion. But the odds are the worst of any lottery.

Best overall value: probably none of them. The expected value is negative across the board. But if you are going to play anyway, the smaller format games (SA Lotto, Loto France, UK 49s) give you meaningfully better odds per ticket.

The comparison table

Ranking by jackpot odds, best to worst:

1. UK 49s, 1 in 13,983,816

2. Loto France, 1 in 19,068,840

3. SA Lotto, 1 in 20,358,520

4. UK Lotto, 1 in 45,057,474

5. Oz Lotto, 1 in 45,379,620

6. Powerball Australia, 1 in 134,490,400

7. EuroMillions, 1 in 139,838,160

8. EuroJackpot, 1 in 139,838,160

9. La Primitiva, 1 in 139,838,160

10. Powerball USA, 1 in 292,201,338

11. Mega Millions, 1 in 302,575,350

The difference between the top and bottom of this list is a factor of 21.6. Your odds of winning SA Lotto are 21.6 times better than your odds of winning Mega Millions. Both are still terrible odds by any practical measure, but the relative difference matters if you play regularly.

Use an odds calculator to see the full prize tier breakdown for any game. The jackpot odds get the headlines, but the lower prize tiers are where most wins happen.